Haitong Banco de Investimento do Brasil and MVP Capital were the winners in September in the Top 5 ranking for short-term Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), according to the Department of Investor Relations and Special Studies (Gerin) of the Brazilian Central Bank.
To reach the top of the five institutions whose macroeconomic projections were the closest to actual indicators, the two institutions sent to Gerin a projection for the IPCA inflation index with an average deviation of just 0.048 percentage points from the 0.54% rate released today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In the third place was Absolute Gestão de Investimentos, whose projection had an average deviation of 0.051 percentage points from the September IPCA. Bradesco Asset Management ranked fourth, while Caixa Asset and M. Safra jointly stood fifth.
Haitong also ranked second in the September Top 5 ranking for short-term IGP-M (General Price Index – Market). The IGP-M registered an inflation of 0.95%, while the bank’s projections had an average deviation of 0.1367 percentage points. For this indicator, the top rank went to Serasa Experian, whose forecast had an average deviation of 0.1050 percentage points from the actual IGP-M figure.
Bradesco Asset Management’s projection ranked third in the Central Bank’s IGP-M Top 5 with an average deviation of 0.1383 from the September IGP-M figure. The fourth place was shared by Banco Votorantim and Santander Asset, whose projections deviated on average 0.1417 percentage points from the actual index.
With regard to IGP-DI (General Price Index – Internal Availability), the first place went to Banco Itaú. The bank’s projected inflation according to this indicator had an average deviation of 0.120 percentage points compared to the actual September IGP-DI of 1.42%, according to Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse ranked second in this category, followed by Santander Asset Management, Banco Votorantim and Telefônica/Vivo in the third, fourth and fifth places, respectively.